macro/HIGH confidence
Fed Surprise Sensor
Detects divergence between Fed actions and market expectations.
STABLE
Live
Since Mar 13, 2026State History
NEUTRAL
DOVISH SURPRISE
HAWKISH SURPRISE
1000 readings|6 state changes|RISING: 46%STABLE: 41%ELEVATED: 13%
State Definitions
NEUTRAL
Fed action matched market expectations. No surprise. Minimal market impact.
DOVISH SURPRISE
Fed more accommodative than market expected. Rate cut surprise or softer guidance. Risk-on signal.
HAWKISH SURPRISE
Fed more restrictive than expected. Rate hike surprise or harder guidance. Risk-off signal.
Sources
Read-only intelligence. Sensor states are diagnostic observations, not predictions.